What the May 2026 Data Really Means for Buyers and Sellers

Published by Cheri Ettinger | REALTOR® ABR, PSA, RENE, NHC, NHSAC | San Antonio & Texas Hill Country

Data Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC), Texas Housing Insight — May 2026

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Every month I pull the latest housing data directly from the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University, the most credible, publicly funded real estate research source in the state, and translate it into plain language for the people who actually live and buy and sell here.

This month's report is one worth paying close attention to.

Because the May 2026 data tells a story that has two very different headlines depending on whether you're a buyer or a seller, and understanding both sides of it is the difference between making a smart move and making an expensive one.

Let's get into it.

The Headlines: What Happened in March 2026

Here's the honest summary before we break it down:

San Antonio's March closed sales jumped 10.5% compared to last year, the strongest performance of any major Texas metro, ahead of Austin (8.5%), Dallas-Fort Worth (4.7%), and Houston (2.6%).

At the same time, the average seller in San Antonio cut their asking price by $18,000, or 5.2% off their original list price, before getting a deal done.

Both of those things are true simultaneously. And the tension between them tells you everything you need to know about where this market actually is.

For Buyers: This Is the Negotiating Window You've Been Waiting For

If you've been sitting on the sidelines, watching rates, watching prices, waiting for the "right time," I want you to read this section carefully.

Inventory Is Up. Meaningfully.

Active inventory in San Antonio has climbed 10% above last year's levels. Statewide, we're sitting at a 5-month supply of homes, the highest level since the 2012 market cycle.

What does that mean for you practically?

More homes to choose from.

Less competition on any given listing.

Less pressure to waive inspections or write offers dramatically over asking just to be taken seriously.

The frantic, 24-hour-offer-deadline, multiple-offers-in-the-first-weekend dynamic that defined this market a few years ago is not the norm right now. And that is genuinely good news for anyone who wants to buy thoughtfully rather than desperately.

Sellers Are Negotiating, And the Numbers Prove It

The average seller in San Antonio accepted $18,000 less than they originally listed for in March. That's a 5.2% reduction off the original asking price before closing.

This is not a sign of a crashing market. It's a sign of a market that has recalibrated, where buyers have leverage they didn't have in 2021 or 2022, and sellers who started too high are meeting the market where it actually is.

For buyers, that $18,000 represents a real negotiating opportunity. It also means there's room for things like seller concessions toward closing costs, rate buydowns, and repair credits, strategies that were essentially impossible to request in a seller's market.

Homes Are Sitting Longer, Which Works in Your Favor

The average home in San Antonio is now on the market for 82 days before closing. Two years ago, that number was 63 days. Last year, 71 days.

A home that has been on the market for 60, 70, 80 days has a seller who is motivated.

They've watched their neighbors sell.

They've reduced their price once already, maybe twice.

They are ready to negotiate.

Understanding how to read days-on-market data, and how to use it strategically in an offer, is one of the most valuable tools a buyer has in this environment. This is part of what I do with every buyer I represent.

🏡 Thinking about buying? Let's map out your real options in today's San Antonio market. Call or text me at (210) 985-7940. No commitment, just a real conversation.

The New Construction Equation Has Changed

Here's a data point I don't think gets nearly enough attention:

The price gap between new construction and existing resale homes has narrowed to just $15,500, an all-time low.

Before the pandemic, that gap was nearly $100,000. Builders were pricing new construction at a 40–60% premium above comparable resale homes. It was a completely different market.

Over the past several years, as affordability has deteriorated and buyers have been squeezed, builders have strategically pivoted toward smaller, more attainable homes, and the median new construction price has declined steadily since summer 2022.

The result: for buyers who assumed new construction was out of reach, it's worth revisiting that assumption. At $15,500 above median resale, the premium for a brand-new home with builder warranty, modern finishes, and no deferred maintenance has essentially become a rounding error in many purchase decisions.

If you've been shopping resale exclusively because you assumed new builds were too expensive, I'd love to walk you through what's actually available right now.

For Sellers: The Market Is Still Moving, But It Rewards the Prepared

If you're a homeowner thinking about selling, here's the message I want you to hear: the market is not done. It's just more selective.

Buyers Are Active, When the Price Is Right

San Antonio's 10.5% jump in March closed sales is proof that motivated buyers are out there.

They didn't disappear.

They're just making different decisions than they were three years ago.

They're taking their time.

They're comparing options.

They're negotiating.

And they're paying attention to price.

The homes that are selling right now have one thing in common: they were priced correctly from Day 1.

Not optimistically.

Not "we'll see if we get any offers at this number."

Priced accurately, based on what comparable homes have actually sold for in the past 60–90 days.

The Cost of Overpricing Has Never Been Clearer

The data tells a stark story about what happens when sellers start too high.

The average unsold listing in San Antonio is sitting with a 94-day days-on-market figure, a two-year high.

And the average price reduction when a sale finally happens is $18,000.

Think about that sequence:

The home sits.

Days accumulate.

Buyers start wondering what's wrong with it.

Showings slow down.

The seller eventually reduces.

And the final sale price ends up lower than it would have been if they'd priced it correctly at the start.

Overpricing doesn't just cost you money in the final sale price. It costs you time, carrying expenses, and the emotional toll of a listing that drags on.

🏡 Curious what your home is actually worth in today's market, not an inflated estimate, but a real one? Get your free home valuation here. No commitment required.

New Listings Surged, More Competition Is Coming

One more number sellers need to see:

New listings in San Antonio jumped 39% from February to March, the strongest seasonal momentum this market has seen since 2021.

More sellers are listing.

That's a sign of a healthy, active market.

But it also means the competition for buyer attention is growing.

A home that might have been the only option in a neighborhood six months ago may now be one of four or five choices.

Standing out in that environment requires more than a sign in the yard and a few cell phone photos.

It requires professional photography, real MLS marketing reach, a competitive pricing strategy, and an agent who knows how to communicate your home's value to buyer's agents whose clients are actively comparing options.

What's Coming: The Headwinds Worth Knowing About

Being honest with you is more important to me than sounding optimistic, so here's the part of the report that deserves attention.

Mortgage rates have reversed course.

After declining steadily from last June through early 2026, rates have ticked back up in recent weeks.

The improving inflation readings that had boosted buyer confidence in January and February have given way to new pressure from global energy prices and their ripple effects on consumer goods.

April's pending home sales data is already showing slower activity.

Fewer buyers went under contract in April than a typical April would indicate.

That's an early signal that the spring season, which historically accounts for 30% of annual sales from April through June, may not hit the peaks that buyers and sellers were hoping for.

Buyer hesitancy is real.

Economic uncertainty has a direct effect on confidence, and confidence drives housing decisions.

Buyers who were ready to move in January are pausing to see how the broader picture develops.

None of this signals a crash.

San Antonio's market is too diversified and too fundamentally strong for that.

But it does mean the window of opportunity that exists right now, elevated inventory, negotiating room, motivated sellers, may look different by summer.

If you've been waiting for the perfect moment, I'd gently suggest that perfect moments in real estate are a myth.

Good moments are real.

This is one of them.

The San Antonio Market at a Glance: May 2026

MetricMarch 2026ChangeClosed Sales (March)Up 10.5% YoY✅ Strongest major Texas metroActive InventoryUp 10% YoY📦 More choices for buyersMonths of Supply5.0 monthsHighest since 2012Average Days on Market82 daysUp from 63 days in 2024Median Seller Price Cut$18,000 (5.2% off list)🏷️ Real negotiating roomYoY Price Change (SA)Down 1.7%10th consecutive YoY declineStatewide Median Price$332,000Down 2.1% YoYNew vs. Existing Gap$15,500All-time lowNew Listings (March)Up 39% MoMStrongest since 2021

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center, May 2026 Report (trerc.tamu.edu)

Quick Takeaways: The Honest Summary

If you're a buyer:

✅ You have more inventory and more negotiating room than in years

✅ The average seller is cutting $18,000. That's leverage before you even make an offer

✅ New construction is now only $15,500 above resale median. Worth reconsidering

✅ Homes sitting over 60 days represent motivated sellers ready to deal

⚠️ Rates have ticked back up. Locking in sooner rather than later has value

If you're a seller:

✅ Buyers are active. March sales were up 10.5% in San Antonio

✅ New listings surged 39%. The market is moving

⚠️ Homes priced correctly are moving. Homes priced too high are sitting and cutting

⚠️ 94-day average DOM on unsold inventory. The cost of overpricing is real and measurable

⚠️ More competition is coming. Standing out requires strategy, not just a listing

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the San Antonio housing market crashing in 2026?

No. The data doesn't support that narrative. What it shows is a market that has recalibrated from the frantic conditions of 2021–2022 to something more balanced. Prices have softened modestly, down 1.7% year over year in San Antonio, but sales are still happening. The market is more selective, not distressed.

Is now a good time to buy in San Antonio?

For buyers who are financially prepared and working with someone who understands how to negotiate in this environment, yes. Inventory is higher than it's been in years, sellers are motivated, and the negotiating conditions favor thoughtful buyers.

Is now a good time to sell my San Antonio home?

It can be, but strategy matters more than ever. Correctly priced homes with professional marketing and strong representation are selling. Homes that start too high are sitting and eventually cutting to a lower price than they would have sold for on Day 1.

What is my San Antonio home worth right now?

That's exactly what my free home valuation tool is designed to tell you. It takes about 60 seconds, costs nothing, and gives you a real data-backed estimate based on current local comparable sales.

How do rising mortgage rates affect my buying power?

Every 0.25% increase in mortgage rate reduces your purchasing power by roughly 2–3% on a typical loan.

Should I wait for prices to drop more before buying?

Timing the bottom of a market is nearly impossible, even for professionals. Buying at sound current value, not relying on further price drops to make the math work, is the approach that protects you regardless of what happens next.

Want to Know What YOUR Home Is Worth?

Whether you're planning to sell now, in six months, or just want to know where you stand, there's no better starting point than a real number.

My free home valuation tool gives you a data-backed estimate for your specific San Antonio or Texas Hill Country home based on current local sales activity.

It takes about 60 seconds.

It costs nothing.

And it comes with zero pressure or commitment.

👉 Get Your Free Home Valuation Here — Takes 60 Seconds https://homevalue.gritgirlrealtor.com/

And if you have questions after you see it, or if you want to sit down and talk through what the current market means for your specific situation, I'm always available.

No pitch. No pressure. Just an honest conversation with someone who works this market every single day.

📞 Call or Text: (210) 985-7940
📧 Email: [email protected]
🏡 Free Home Valuation: https://homevalue.gritgirlrealtor.com/
🔗 Linktree: https://linktr.ee/cheri.ettinger
🌐 Website: gritgirlrealtor.com

Cheri Ettinger | REALTOR® ABR, PSA, RENE, NHC, NHSAC
Option One Real Estate | San Antonio & Texas Hill Country

Data source: Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC), Texas Housing Insight — May 2026. March 2026 figures. All San Antonio-area data reflects the San Antonio–New Braunfels MSA. Visit trerc.tamu.edu for the full report.